Welcome back: ways towns and cities will emerge from the pandemic

With restrictions being eased around the UK, following regionally defined roadmaps, I was asked, by BBC Wales, what are the best ways for towns and cities to emerge from the pandemic?

Plan for recovery

First, places of any size need to have a recovery plan and action it.  The good news is that most cities and many towns do have a plan, but for these plans to translate into an effective recovery, businesses, council, and the community will need to play their part and work together.

Swansea was one of the first places in Wales in bring out a clear recovery plan. It was led by the Business Improvement District, and the plan coordinated all the operational basics the city needed to focus on through the crisis and put it a good position for recovery. That included making more outside areas available for hospitality businesses to trade, as well as reduced parking fees. The lesson here is to focus on interventions that encourage people back safely, anything that makes it easy for them to support their town centre with their footfall and spending.

People have missed meeting up and enjoying time and treats with friends and family – but even once restrictions start to be lifted, they will still want to do this safely.  The towns and cities that make more outside space available will capture this spend. English border towns may well be the main beneficiaries from a fortnight of Welsh visitors, who can travel out of Wales from the 12th April to enjoy outdoor hospitality at cafes, pubs and restaurants in England, but have to wait until the 26th April until Welsh hospitality businesses are allowed to re-open.

Social spending is where there is going to be most ‘pent-up demand’ as it has been the most COVID-affected category of expenditure.  Some individual businesses can extend onto their own outside space and potentially pavements, car-parks and other adjoining space too. But are there opportunities to use other spaces in the town, like squares or pedestrianized streets, to be used for communal business usage – especially to help those businesses that have limited or no outside space in their immediate vicinity? Perhaps only at certain times (e.g. early evening and weekends) and with temporary shelters and lighting to make areas functional and attractive?

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Arts, culture, and the instinct of recoil

by Gareth Roberts

The COVID-19 pandemic is already having a profound altering effect on our towns and cities. The restrictions placed on business operations and social interactions have rendered places temporarily incapable of offering many of the functions, and ultimately serving the purpose, that we have erstwhile looked to them to provide. Much of the focus thus far has been on the high street, specifically retail, and the implications for places large and small the pandemic presents. However, equally as important to many places, and a by-product of the structural changes we’ve witnessed over several decades which have increased its significance, is the role of arts and culture.

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International Place Leadership Forum, 5 May

COVID 19: Responding, Recovering, Reinventing
International Place Leadership Forum

FREE ONLINE WEBINAR May 5, 2020 (04:00 PM BST; 05:00 PM CET; 06 PM EET)

Join IPM for a two-hour facilitated discussion on how places are reacting to COVID-19 around the world.

– How are city authorities and place managers around the world reacting to the pandemic?
– What can we learn from the different lockdown and recovery strategies that are being adopted?
– What might be the longer-term effects of COVID-19?
– How do we be better prepared for tomorrow and how can we lead change?

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The Time to Act is Now: A Framework for Post-COVID 19 Recovery for our Towns and Cities

By Nikos Ntounis, Regine Sonderland Saga, Maria Loronõ-Leturiondo, Tom Hindmarch and Cathy Parker

Each passing day we are witnessing the unprecedented effects of COVID-19 on the heart of our cities and towns, as the boundless pandemic is altering – and potentially displacing – their social and economic role. In the UK, as in other countries, the implementation of strict public health measures means that the majority of service-based and non-food retail, hospitality and leisure business premises remain closed to reduce social contact (MHCLG, 2020). Footfall, a key metric in the management of town centres and other commercial areas, has declined since the lockdown was announced on the 23rd of March. Yesterday (31st of March) footfall was down 81.4% compared to the same period last year (Springboard, 2020). The relatively short period of disruption has already triggered the first wave of store closures (Laura Ashley, BrightHouse, Carluccio’s), impacting first on the most vulnerable businesses, whose position was fragile even before COVID-19.

However, the scale of the pandemic and the unprecedented public health response will mean much more disturbance is yet to come.  Macroeconomic estimates suggest that the economic shock of COVID-19 will be around 10% of global GDP. This is five times more than the credit and liquidity problems that caused the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 (Milne, 2020). A massive number of bankruptcies will likely follow, which will put at risk many jobs and have a significant impact on the attractiveness of many of our towns and cities. Not only will their offer be reduced as less businesses come back to our town centres, post-COVID-19 – but there may be less demand for these businesses in the future. Prolonged lockdown can fundamentally change consumer behaviour, as people become dependent on having products delivered to their home. A survey by analyst Retail Economics of 2,000 consumers, quoted in The Guardian, found that two-thirds of shoppers said they had switched to purchasing products online that they have always previously purchased in-store (Inman, 2020). But the increasingly multifunctional town/city is not only at risk of being obsolescent to shoppers. People used to exercise in their front room, may not go back to the gym; employees who like working from home may not return to the office; friends accustomed to socialising online may no longer pop down the pub.

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