The Time to Act is Now: A Framework for Post-COVID 19 Recovery for our Towns and Cities

By Nikos Ntounis, Regine Sonderland Saga, Maria Loronõ-Leturiondo, Tom Hindmarch and Cathy Parker

Each passing day we are witnessing the unprecedented effects of COVID-19 on the heart of our cities and towns, as the boundless pandemic is altering – and potentially displacing – their social and economic role. In the UK, as in other countries, the implementation of strict public health measures means that the majority of service-based and non-food retail, hospitality and leisure business premises remain closed to reduce social contact (MHCLG, 2020). Footfall, a key metric in the management of town centres and other commercial areas, has declined since the lockdown was announced on the 23rd of March. Yesterday (31st of March) footfall was down 81.4% compared to the same period last year (Springboard, 2020). The relatively short period of disruption has already triggered the first wave of store closures (Laura Ashley, BrightHouse, Carluccio’s), impacting first on the most vulnerable businesses, whose position was fragile even before COVID-19.

However, the scale of the pandemic and the unprecedented public health response will mean much more disturbance is yet to come.  Macroeconomic estimates suggest that the economic shock of COVID-19 will be around 10% of global GDP. This is five times more than the credit and liquidity problems that caused the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 (Milne, 2020). A massive number of bankruptcies will likely follow, which will put at risk many jobs and have a significant impact on the attractiveness of many of our towns and cities. Not only will their offer be reduced as less businesses come back to our town centres, post-COVID-19 – but there may be less demand for these businesses in the future. Prolonged lockdown can fundamentally change consumer behaviour, as people become dependent on having products delivered to their home. A survey by analyst Retail Economics of 2,000 consumers, quoted in The Guardian, found that two-thirds of shoppers said they had switched to purchasing products online that they have always previously purchased in-store (Inman, 2020). But the increasingly multifunctional town/city is not only at risk of being obsolescent to shoppers. People used to exercise in their front room, may not go back to the gym; employees who like working from home may not return to the office; friends accustomed to socialising online may no longer pop down the pub.

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